Closing the aspiration gap – comment by CEO Craig Robertson

AFL fanatics in Melbourne and Adelaide with a few years behind them will recall Waverly Park built on the old market gardens of Mulgrave and Football Park in West Lakes in Adelaide. They were wide expansive playing fields away from the city. Public transport was poor and sweeping cold winds chilled the spectators who, in the best of seating, felt distant from the action on the field.

New stadia like Adelaide Oval and Optus in Perth furnish intimate viewing platforms. The trend started 20 years ago with Docklands in the Melbourne CBD, topped off (literally) by a retractable roof to deal with Melbourne’s erratic winter weather. Location was also pivotal. A short walk from the CBD across the Torrens gets you to the Adelaide Oval, and Docklands now snuggles among high rise corporate buildings on the Western edge of the CBD, walking distance to the train station. Crowds have grown as a result.

Some research used by Steven Joyce that led to the National Careers Institute has been a curiosity. In an extract below, it points to the disjoin between education and training and the aspirations of young people. The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet recently released the base report[1]. It’s an easy read so I suggest you have a look.

Joyce uses the analysis to raise the concern that many students’ career aspirations were not aligned with their educational plan, which could leave them overqualified. For example, as shown in the chart, 45 per cent of those surveyed intended to complete a bachelor level degree, when they need a certificate. Others risk underqualification – 33 per cent intending to pursue a VET pathway when they need a bachelor’s degree.

These are big figures. It means that in a group of 100 young people aspiring for a job (on a ten‑year horizon) which needs a VET level qualification that 45 are over-shooting by aiming for university. In another group of 100 young people aspiring for a job which needs university preparation 33 are aiming too low in pursuing VET.

That’s big turn-arounds.

Over or under qualified aside, the bigger question is that of aspiration. Of the young people surveyed 63 per cent aspire for jobs requiring a bachelors’ qualification, the remainder for jobs needing a certificate. Joyce quotes from The Grattan Institute and Mission Australia that university is now the default post-school activity for many young people, with 67 per cent planning to go to university, compared with 14 per cent intending TAFE or another RTO, and 9 per cent an apprenticeship.

These are strong indications of consumer intent that may be difficult to turn in favour of VET. Efforts so far have enlisted Scotty Cam and promised new websites, but ultimately seem focused on VET.

The Business Council of Australia for some time has been asking for joined-up information for all occupations and all post-school learning pathways. The National Skills Commission (NSC) released its first major publication[2] on 1 July on the Australian labour market. It’s well worth the read and provides plenty to ponder but dwells on occupations served by VET alone. If VET is the sole focus, the NSC risks serving only the 23 per cent of young people who see VET as an avenue for them, or the difficult task of turning university-destined young people to VET. On the latter, it’s fighting against the wage premium from the university option, as shown in the diagram extracted from the report.

This brings us to the tertiary agenda and the Australian Qualifications Framework. The 33 per cent gap in personal income outcomes between VET and university compared to the 6 per cent between Certificate and Diploma levels is indication enough that the AQF needs fixing and, from that, a decent look at tertiary structures will fall out.

The VET sector, including industry, shouldn’t be afraid to participate. People are attracted to quality vocational education for a range of reasons – the nature of the learning, camaraderie, acquiring contemporary skills for work and life, and the input versus outcome trade-off – and more would be if tertiary structures were aligned.

The alternative approach might be to try harder at selling VET, and we’ve seen that attempted before. Or are we trying some sort of elaborate mind engineering to convince people to give up their aspiration? If the upheaval in the economy and society wrought by COVID is a once-in-a-century event, then surely now is the time for major structural reform.

The lessons from Waverly and Football Park is that a major re-orientation was required, not refurbishment. Vocational education can be powerful and transformational because many of us have seen it first-hand. We need to acknowledge the aspiration gap and think seriously about how to overcome it. Refurbishment isn’t enough. Only a complete re-orientation will do. Let’s look to the Skills Commissioner and National Careers Institute to bring these dimensions into play.